After including the drop on Monday, December 1, 2025, the S&P 500 (SPY) is up by 16.07% year-to-date. After Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, investors could only count on retail firms to boost market sentiment.
Walmart closed at $111.53, up by 9.1% in the month. Costco (COST) closed at $911.96, 15.42% below its $1,078 high for the year. The diverging retail sector performance gave the market a reason to look at trouble in the Far East.
In Japan, the central bank’s minister, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that the Bank of Japan will consider raising interest rates when it meets later this month. This view contrasts with the Federal Reserve. FedNow’s probability switched from a less than 50% chance of a rate cut in December to a probable one. This increased the attractiveness of U.S. equity but weakened demand for the U.S. dollar. More importantly, it disrupts the long-term carry trade.
Cryptocurrencies felt Japan’s rising 40-year bond yield the most. Bitcoin fell by 5% before recovering. The other cryptocurrencies risk another leg down. Prospects dimmed when Strategy (MSTR) established a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve. This is an unusual strategy, since it requires the US currency to be stable.
Strategy also acquired 130 bitcoins between November 17 through November 30 for $11.7 million. The $89,960 average price paid is higher than the last price of around $87,000.
