The $4,100 Discovery Window: Why Production Peaks Are Forcing a Race for New Gold Deposits

November 12, 2025 - By: Baystreet Staff


Gold just crossed $4,120 per ounce. The metal isn't slowing down.

Central banks worldwide purchased 634 tonnes of gold through the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 purchases jumping 28% from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, global gold production is forecast to peak in 2026 before entering a sustained decline through 2030.

Supply can't keep up with demand.

That's creating a rare window. Exploration budgets fell 7% in 2024 to $5.55 billion, marking the lowest share in a decade. Yet prices continue reaching historic levels.

One emerging developer advancing projects in historically productive districts is capturing attention at a critical moment.

Click here to discover this strategic opportunity.

Among companies making moves worth noting:

  • Artemis Gold Inc. (TSXV: ARTG) (OTCQX: ARGTF) reported Q3 2025 financial and operating results at its Blackwater Mine in British Columbia, with the mill operating at 17,248 tonnes per day—5% above design capacity—while achieving 87% gold recovery and generating strong cash flows in its first full quarter after declaring commercial production in May 2025.

  • Altius Minerals Corporation (TSX: ALS) (OTCQX: ATUSF) reported Q3 2025 attributable royalty revenue of $21.4 million, reflecting higher copper stream deliveries at Chapada and increased potash volumes, while strengthening its diversified royalty portfolio across precious and base metals.

  • Nevada King Gold Corp. (TSXV: NKG) (OTCQB: NKGFF) extended mineralization 150 meters along strike at its Silver Park East target, confirming gold and silver mineralization over a 450-meter by 300-meter footprint with clear expansion potential at its Atlanta Gold Mine Project in Nevada's Battle Mountain Trend.

  • Great Pacific Gold Corp. (TSXV: GPAC) (OTCQX: GPGCF) provided an update on its Kesar Gold Project in Papua New Guinea, reporting multiple high-grade intercepts from 13 diamond drill holes totaling 3,700 meters adjacent to K92 Mining's Kainantu operations.

  • Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) (TSX: K) reported strong Q3 2025 results with record free cash flow of approximately $700 million, producing 503,862 gold equivalent ounces while achieving a net cash position and increasing its share buyback target by 20% to $600 million.

The Supply Crunch Nobody's Talking About

The gold market is entering uncharted territory.

Global mine production is projected to peak at approximately 3,250 tonnes in 2026 before declining through 2030. Even if all planned projects come online, production could drop by 17% within five years.

The discovery pipeline has dried up. No major new gold deposit was discovered in 2023 or 2024. Recent discoveries average just 4.4 million ounces since 2020, compared to 7.7 million ounces a decade earlier.

Meanwhile, institutional demand continues accelerating. J.P. Morgan forecasts central banks will purchase approximately 900 tonnes in 2025, maintaining the structural shift toward gold reserves that has defined the past three years.

This creates a fundamental mismatch. Demand from central banks, investors, and industry continues rising while the supply of newly discovered ounces falls.

Mining companies with advanced-stage projects in tier-one jurisdictions are positioned to capture disproportionate value in this environment. Projects with defined resources, permitted infrastructure, and clear paths to production become increasingly strategic as the development pipeline thins.

The exploration deficit matters because it takes 10 to 15 years from discovery to production for most projects. What isn't being found today won't be mined in the 2030s.

That's why companies advancing projects through development stages are attracting renewed attention. With gold holding above $4,100 and production set to decline, the window for capitalizing on this transition is narrowing.

One small developer advancing projects in historically productive districts with processing readiness and exploration upside is positioning itself to capture this shift.

Click here to discover the company benefiting from both processing infrastructure and exploration momentum in Tanzania's gold belts.

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