At $3,200, gold’s rally is far from over. In fact, thanks to the ongoing trade war and probability of a recession, gold could test $4,000, according to analysts at JPMorgan. “The bank now expects gold prices to reach an average of $3,675/oz by 4Q25, on the way towards above $4,000/oz by 2Q26, with risks skewed towards an earlier overshoot of these forecasts if demand surpasses its expectations,” as reported by Reuters. All of which could have a substantial impact on gold stocks, such as U.S. Gold Corp. (NASDAQ: USAU), Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), Centerra Gold (NYSE: CGAU) (TSX: GG), Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) (TSX: ABX) and Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM) (TSX: NGT).
Goldman Sachs also believes gold could rally to $3,700 by the end of 2025, and to $4,000 by the middle of 2026. Even UBS analysts say gold could rally to $3,500 by December. All thanks to stronger-than-expected central bank demand for gold, which isn’t expected to slow any time soon. Instead, central banks are only accelerating their demand. China, for example, just expanded its gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month, adding 70,000 troy ounces in April.
“In China, there have been signs investors are piling into gold, with volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to a record in recent weeks. The voracious onshore appetite has also seen the PBOC issuing fresh quotas for commercial banks to import bullion,” says Bloomberg.
Look at U.S. Gold Corp. (NASDAQ: USAU), For Example
U.S. Gold Corp. just provided an update regarding the exercises of previously issued warrants subsequent to the Company’s latest Form 10-Q filing for the three months ended January 31, 2025, filed on March 17, 2025.
At January 31, 2025, the Company reported 4,788,112 warrants outstanding. Since then, the Company has benefited from the exercise of 1,864,668 warrants, generating gross proceeds for the Company of approximately $7.3 million. The exercises represent an approximate 39% reduction in warrants outstanding, decreasing the remaining balance to 2,923,444 warrants.
Mr. Eric Alexander, U.S. Gold’s CFO, commented on the recent warrant exercises, “The cash received from these warrant exercises provides the Company extra leeway to carry out its current planned activities of completing a Feasibility Study, developing a project execution plan, advancing financing discussions, and providing funds for elements of the project infrastructure. The reduction in the outstanding warrants helps to limit the overhang of dilutive securities. We appreciate the continued support of all our shareholders as we navigate down the development path on our flagship asset, the CK Gold Project in Southeast Wyoming.” Regarding our exploration projects, Mr. Alexander added, “We continue to keep our eyes on our Keystone exploration property in Nevada and the Challis Gold Project in Idaho, and with this additional cash infusion, we may look to deploy a portion to continue advancing these projects.”
Other related developments from around the markets include:
Freeport-McMoRan just reported first quarter 2025 results. Net income attributable to common stock in first-quarter 2025 totaled $352 million, $0.24 per share, and adjusted net income attributable to common stock totaled $358 million, $0.24 per share. Consolidated production totaled 868 million pounds of copper, 287 thousand ounces of gold and 23 million pounds of molybdenum in first-quarter 2025. Operating cash flows totaled $1.1 billion, net of $0.3 billion of working capital and other uses, in first-quarter 2025. Operating cash flows are expected to approximate $7.0 billion, including $0.2 billion of working capital and other sources, for the year 2025, based on achievement of current sales volume and cost estimates, and assuming prices of $4.15 per pound for copper, $3,000 per ounce for gold and $20.00 per pound for molybdenum for the remainder of 2025.
Centerra Gold reported its fourth quarter 2024 operating and financial results, and issued 2025 guidance. President and CEO, Paul Tomory, commented, “In the fourth quarter, we had steady gold and copper production and ended 2024 near the low end of our production guidance range. At Öksüt, we benefited from elevated production in 2024 by processing inventory that was accumulated during the shutdown in 2022 and 2023 to achieve over 200,000 ounces. Since the restart of operations in June 2023, Öksüt generated close to $550 million in cash provided from operations and over $480 million in free cash flow NG. We generated strong free cash flow at both operations in the fourth quarter, driven by robust contributions from Mount Milligan, which increased our cash and cash equivalents to $625 million.”
“Looking ahead to 2025, our production guidance reflects Öksüt returning to normal production levels, as previously planned, after two years of processing excess inventory, which in turn has impacted unit costs. We remain disciplined to protect margins through initiatives at our sites including at Mount Milligan through the site optimization program which will continue in 2025. We forecast continued strong free cash flow generation at our operations in 2025, allowing us to fund the restart of Thompson Creek and continue to return capital to shareholders, while preserving our cash for strategic opportunities.”
Barrick Gold announced that it has reached an agreement to sell the 50 percent interest in the Donlin Gold Project in Alaska held by Barrick’s subsidiary Barrick Gold U.S. Inc. to affiliates of Paulson Advisers LLC and NOVAGOLD Resources Inc. (NYSE American, TSX:NG) for $1 billion in cash. In addition, Barrick has granted NOVAGOLD an option to purchase the outstanding debt owed to Barrick in connection with the Donlin Gold Project for $90 million if purchased prior to closing, or for $100 million if purchased within 18 months from closing, when the option expires. If that option is not exercised, the debt will remain outstanding, substantially in accordance with its existing terms. Paulson and NOVAGOLD have agreed to acquire 80 percent and 20 percent, respectively, of Barrick’s subsidiary’s interest in Donlin Gold LLC, the entity that holds the Donlin Gold Project, with each purchaser contributing pro rata to the purchase price and several existing shareholders, including Paulson, backstopping NOVAGOLD’s purchase commitment.
Newmont Corp. announced first quarter 2025 results and declared a dividend of $0.25 per share. “Following on from a robust fourth quarter performance, Newmont has delivered 1.5 million attributable gold ounces and generated a record first quarter free cash flow of $1.2 billion, demonstrating the strength of our unrivaled Tier 1 Portfolio,” said Tom Palmer, Newmont's President and Chief Executive Officer. "We also successfully completed our non-core divestiture program, generating up to $4.3 billion in total gross proceeds including over $2.5 billion of after-tax cash proceeds in the first half of 2025. With these significant achievements and a solid start to the year, we remain firmly on track to meet our 2025 guidance, continuing on our journey towards creating the world’s leading gold and copper portfolio for the benefit of our shareholders."
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