At its Sunday meeting, OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to keep oil production levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 and formally approved a long-debated process to reassess member production capacities for future quotas. The production decision aligned closely with expectations set by delegates, who signaled that the group would pause further supply increases amid concerns about a potential glut.
The most significant development in the statement concerns future production baselines. Building on the mandate established at the 39th meeting, OPEC+ announced that it had approved a new mechanism to assess each participating country’s maximum sustainable production capacity. These assessments, which will take place over most of 2026, will form the reference point for 2027 production quotas. This mechanism has been central to internal debates for several years, especially among members such as the UAE that argue their rising capacity is not adequately reflected in current baselines.
The mechanism will cover 19 of the group’s 22 members, with special considerations for sanctioned producers, and will be carried out between January and September 2026. Commenting on the mechanism, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister said, "I care about transparency first and foremost, and the world to know what is left, and act accordingly… being transparent serves us all to bring things into perspective.”
Market reaction to the meeting was muted but positive, with oil prices trading higher in early Asian trade. At the time of writing, Brent crude had risen 1.22% to $63.14 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate had increased 1.25% to settle at $59.28. Traders had largely anticipated a status quo decision, and the modest uptick reflected relief that the group was not introducing fresh barrels into a market that analysts say is showing increasing signs of oversupply.
By keeping production levels unchanged, OPEC+ is signaling its reluctance to add barrels at a time when analysts have repeatedly warned of a “looming glut.” The group has already restored roughly 2.9 million barrels per day of supply since April 2025, but continues to hold about 3.24 million bpd of output cuts in place. Those cuts include 1.24 million bpd of 'voluntary cuts' and a further 2 million bpd of baseline cuts that have been in place since 2022.
The combination of sticking to its production policy and approving a framework for future quota-setting reflects the group's desire to reduce volatility. The new capacity-assessment mechanism in particular will shape the political landscape inside OPEC+ over the next year, as countries prepare for contentious negotiations over 2027 baselines. Angola’s 2024 exit from the group over its assigned quota remains a reminder that mismanaging this process can carry real costs.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
