As it turns out, a trade war with your biggest customer isn’t the death knell some made it out to be. U.S. exports of natural gas liquids (NGLs) hit an all-time high in April, defying concerns that the escalating trade war with China would choke off demand. Ship tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa pegged NGL exports at 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd)—a record level—even as exports to China tumbled 35% month-over-month.
NGLs like ethane, propane, and butane—key inputs for everything from plastics to home heating—have long relied on China— as a top buyer. Nearly half of U.S. ethane exports typically head there, and until recently, China sourced 100% of its ethane from the U.S. But tensions boiled over this spring, and Beijing slapped a 125% tariff on U.S. ethane.
That move didn’t last long.
With no other real supply options, China quietly waived the tariff. No formal announcements, just the international equivalent of “nevermind.” Yet the doom forecasts haven’t materialized for nat gas. As China pulled back, other nations stepped up.
India more than tripled its NGL imports from the U.S. to a record 179,000 bpd. Brazil more than doubled its purchases to 113,000 bpd—the highest in five years. Japan, the second-largest buyer after China, boosted shipments by 64% to nearly 400,000 bpd, the highest since February 2023.
Producers say it’s business as usual. Enterprise Products Partners, one of the largest U.S. NGL exporters, reported no disruption to ethane, propane, or butane exports. Rival Energy Transfer echoed that sentiment, noting no trouble finding buyers. Both companies logged increases in NGL transport and export volumes in Q1.
The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. ethane production to rise 3.6% this year to 2.9 million bpd, with most of that growth headed straight to foreign markets. For now, the market has done what geopolitics couldn’t—kept U.S. energy exports booming. Because when it comes to gas liquids, nobody cares about the trade drama—they just want the product.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
