- Markets treading water ahead of Tariff announcements at 4:00 pm EDT.
- US ADP payrolls data in focus (forecast 105,000, previous 77,000)
- US dollar retreats modestly in quiet session.
USDCAD: open 1.4312, overnight range 1.4284-1.4327, close 1.4304, WTI 71.15, Gold 3130.99
The Canadian dollar caught a bid yesterday after US ISM and JOLTS job openings reports were weaker than expected. The results sparked renewed talk that the Fed needs to cut rates to avoid the rising risk of a recession.
Those recession worries will remain center-state after today’s ADP data thanks to Trump’s plans to announce his tariff strategy from the White House Rose Garden at 4:00 pm EDT.
WTI oil prices are in the middle of the overnight 70.38-71.34 range. Prices fell from yesterday’s peak of 72.05 after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 6.03 million barrel increase in US crude inventories for the week ending March 28.
Asian equity indexes were flat to lower. Japan’s Topix slipped 0.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended unchanged, and Australia’s ASX 200 managed a modest 0.12% gain. European markets are under pressure, with the German DAX down 1.0% and the UK FTSE 100 off by 0.62%. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.57%, gold (XAUSUD) is steady at 3121.22, and the US 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.143%.
EURUSD opened in New York at 1.0806 after trading in a 1.0785–1.0811 range overnight. The single currency is on the defensive ahead of Trump's tariff reveal and will likely remain soft if his 20% threat becomes official. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen insists Brussels has a solid retaliation plan but still prefers to talk.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.2902-1.2933 range ahead of tariff news. . Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hoping that by King Charles inviting Trump to dinner, the UK will avoid the worst of the tariffs.
USDJPY drifted in a 149.31–150.00 band with some of yesterday’s gains retraced due to speculation that Trump may spare autos from his tariff sweep. If that hope fades, the USDJPY rally will resume.
AUDUSD climbed in a 0.6275-0.6314 range due to optimism that the tariff rollout might be less brutal than feared, but the bounce lost steam in New York. A full-blown tariff escalation would be a direct hit to Australia via China—its top trading partner. Domestic data was mixed: February PMI dropped to -29.7 from -8.2 in January, while building permits slipped 0.3% m/m following a 6.9% rise previously.
