- FOMC and Election the key focus
- Opec delays December production hike.
- US dollar is trading defensively in thin markets.
USDCAD: open 1.3910, overnight range 1.3892-1.3928 close 1.3961, WTI $71.30, Gold, $2739.02
The Canadian dollar looked like it was going to fall off a cliff when NY markets closed on Friday. It was trading at is lowest level for the year and the lowest since Covid. Then a slew of polls from the likes of ABC News and Ipso’s projected a Harris lead nationally.
That was all US dollar traders to see, and they sold US dollars across the board. The Canadian dollar rallied by default.
WTI crude rallied rising from 69.33 on Friday to 71.81 today. While the Trump poll story contributed some influence, the main factor behind the rise was OPEC's decision to postpone its planned December production increase by a month. Additionally, oil prices were bolstered by Iran’s recent threats of an attack on Israel.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0870-1.0905 range overnight after closing at 1.0839 on Friday. The move was sparked by polls showing Harris with a lead in Iowa, a state previously seen as a reliable win for Trump and because of poor liquidity due to a thin market ahead of the US election.
Political tensions in German didn’t hurt EURUSD-yet. The three-party coalition government faces significant internal friction which some analysts see as a sign of a rising risk of a government collapse.
GBPUSD also opened with a gap, climbing from last Friday’s close of 1.2945 and trading in a 1.2945-1.2999 range overnight. Traders are watching both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve closely in addition to the US election. The BoE is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, though the decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with policymakers expected to signal that future rate cuts will proceed gradually.
USDJPY declined from 153.09 at the end of Friday’s session to the lower end of its 151.59-152.58 range today. The plunge in the US 10-year Treasury yield from 4.37% on Friday to 4.285% today exacerbated the drop.
AUDUSD climbed from 0.6584 to 0.6620 before pulling back to 0.6602 in New York trading. The TD inflation gauge increased by 0.3% (from a prior 0.1%), supporting views that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely keep rates unchanged at 4.35% in its upcoming meeting.
