- US Treasury Secretary agrees yen is fairly valued.
- Global equities extend losses-S&P 500 futures in positive territory.
- US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses
USDCAD: open 1.3881, overnight range 1.3846-1.3885, close 1.3860, WTI 60.64, Gold 3306.67
The Canadian dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses. Prices bounced off of resistance yesterday, but the intraday and short-term technical trends are bullish for the Canadian dollar.
Canadian dollar direction continues to be driven by broad-US dollar moves, and ongoing tariff risks. The Canadian economy is sluggish, and with Trump’s base 10% tariff on all imports from Canada, except those covered by the USMCA, the outlook for the domestic economy is grim. Yesterday’s inflation report showed that the Bank of Canada's favourite measures (CPI-trim and CPI-median) were about the 1–3% target range. That makes a rate cut on June 6 unlikely.
Yesterday’s $16 billion auction of 20-year U.S. bonds flopped, sending yields sharply higher and triggering a selloff in both equities and the U.S. dollar. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which had bottomed out at 4.427% on Tuesday, surged to 4.61% before easing slightly to 4.58% by the New York close.
Stock markets in Asia followed the U.S. selloff, with Japan’s Topix down 0.58% and Australia’s ASX 200 off by 0.45%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.19%. European markets opened lower as well, with the CAC 40 sliding 1.0% and Germany’s Dax off 0.87%. S&P 500 futures are flat, as of 7:45 am.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1291–1.1345 range and is under pressure in early New York trading after a batch of mixed economic data and news that the EU is pushing for a trade pact with the U.S. The German Ifo Business Climate Index ticked up to 87.5 from 86.9 in April, slightly above expectations, while Eurozone PMI disappointed.
GBPUSD traded uneventfully in a 1.3393–1.3441 band. UK PMI data was mixed, though there were signs of a rebound in business confidence and easing price pressures. Analysts attributed the mood shift in part to the recently negotiated tariff agreement, which appeared to boost sentiment.
USDJPY traded between 142.81 and 144.40 and clawed back some losses heading into the New York open. The pair remains under pressure due to strong demand for safe-haven yen, rising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, and expectations for further policy normalization from the Bank of Japan. Comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Finance Minister Kato at the G7 meeting in Banff supported the view that current exchange levels are consistent with market fundamentals, reducing fears of intervention.
AUDUSD drifted in a narrow 0.6423–0.6459 range and showed little direction overnight. Australia’s latest PMI figures provided little fuel for movement.
Canadian data includes Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Indexes. The U.S. data includes the usual weekly jobless claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and existing home sales.
