- US government shutdown could end with House vote today.
- BoC Summary of Deliberations report ahead.
- US dollar trading defensively accept against yen.
USDCAD open:1.4017, overnight range 1.4003-1.4023, close, 1.4020, WTI 60.63, Gold 4129.20
The Canadian dollar squeezed out a small gain on the back of broad-based US dollar selling pressure following the news that the US government shutdown has ended. The Loonie underperformed against AUD and NZD, due to the ongoing US and Canada trade war, a sluggish domestic economy, weakening oil prices, and a government still fixated on hiking carbon taxes.
WTI oil is at the top of its 58.13-58.90 range with prices pressured by the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report warning of an oil surplus of over 4.0 million barrel/day in 2026.
The 43 day US government shutdown ended the moment President Trump signed the latest spending package. The problem is that the delay has effectively wiped out major October economic releases like CPI and nonfarm payrolls. September’s NFP will still make it out the door, but October’s numbers may never surface.
Asian stocks traded mostly higher. Japan’s TOPIX added 0.67% and the Hang Seng gained 0.56% of Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.52%.
As of 7:30 am European markets were mixed. The UK FTSE100 index fell 0.63% while the German Dax lost 0.57%. The French CAC-40 rose 0.41% and S&P 500 futures are flat. The US dollar index isr 99.29, the US 10 year yield is 4.08%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1579 to 1.1635 range, climbing on the relief that Washington reopened for business. Eurozone industrial production improved slightly in September, although the results fell short of forecasts and continued to reflect the drag from US tariffs.
GBPUSD moved within a 1.3101 to 1.3171 band, bouncing higher on the US restart despite softer UK data. Third quarter GDP grew just 0.1 percent, well below the previous quarter.
USDJPY traded in a 154.33 to 155.01 range. Traders appear unfazed by warnings from the Ministry of Finance about potential intervention, arguing that the new government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to intervene while fiscal stimulus plans are being drafted.
AUDUSD rose from 0.6533 to 0.6581 thanks to better risk appetite and stronger than expected Australian jobs data.
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